Raymond Richman - Jesse Richman - Howard Richman
Richmans' Trade and Taxes Blog
Unemployment Claims Fell and Did Not Rise As Reported. Did the Misinformation Help Cause the Fall in the Stock Markets?
Raymond Richman, 8/18/2011
With stock markets in a free fall today, Thursday, 8-18-11, mostly as a result of concern about European banks, it was disconcerting to hear the unpleasant news on CNBC that claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S., seasonally adjusted, in the week ending Aug 13 rose to 408,000 up 9.000 from the week before. Seasonally adjusted figures are statistical estimates based on earlier “normal” years. There have been no recent “normal” years. In any case, the actual number of claims filed is more reliable and is not an estimate. The actual number of claims filed totaled 342,669 , a decrease of 11,739 from the actual number in the previous week. What a difference! Instead of an increase in claims which the seasonal adjustment estimated, the number of claims fell 3.3 percent. Moreover, in the comparable week a year ago, there were 405,484 initial claims filed. There was a reduction of 62,815 compared to a year ago. That was not the only good news. The unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,535,364, a decrease of 45,069 from the preceding week and 745,7 10 or 17.4 percent from the comparable week a year ago.
Would the U.S. markets have collapsed had the actual number of claims been reported by CNBC and Bloomberg and Fox business news? No one knows but it is safe to say that it would have been more reassuring to investors and the short sellers would not have dominated the market as they did. Here is hoping that the news services will pick up this report and the markets will rally tomorrow.
Of course, these figures do not mean we are out of the woods but they do suggest that we are not heading into another recession. They suggest that we are in a period of slow growth or economic stagnation. As we have pointed out in these pages numerous times, there is a lot we can do to stimulate the economy.
Comment by Bruce Bishop, 8/22/2011:
As to the numbers, employment, unemployment, inflation, etc., I believe that everyone has an agenda. Having an agenda means that everyone who publishes numbers of general interest is motivated to exaggerate the numbers, diminish the numbers or to publish the exact truth. Our difficulty lies in trying to determine which is which. We also have a tendency to prefer the numbers that conform to our pre-conceived notions. We have a tendency to prefer the numbers that conform to what we would like them to be. We have a tendency to prefer the numbers provided by our preferred providers. That being said, I do not trust the numbers being dispensed by our government. It's not that the bureaus who publish the numbers are dishonest (BLS for example,) it's just that they are sometimes fed bogus assumptions by politicians who don't know or don't care about the truth.
Response to this comment by Ken Hoop, 8/22/2011:
Another protectionist conservative is economist Ian Fletcher.
"Free Trade Doesn't Work and What Should Replace it."
Response to this comment by Raymond Richman, 8/23/2011:
I reported the actual unemployment claims last week to correct the impression that all of the media, including CNBC, Bloomberg, WS, NYTimes etc., etc. that uinemployment claims rose by 9,000 last week. That is the number that the BLS calculated as the seasonally adusted number. In normal years, the auto industry has lay-offs in July and August while they prepare for new models. When was the last normal year that we had. I do not believe we have had one in years. The BLS also published the actual number of initial claims for unemployment insurance which showed a DECREASE of 11,000 in inital claims. Neither figure is good but the latter figure is positive. The anouncement that initial claims rose 9,000 contributed together with the bad news from Europe with a drop in the DOW of over 400 points.
I am in the midst of estimating what the most likely course will be and will put this on our blog when I finish. I have tentatively concluded that a sideways movement -- stagflation is more likely than a double dip. As my readers know, I believe we need to balalnce our trade not only with China, but with Japan and Germany and oil producing states utilizing our invention of the the single-country-scaled-tariff. Market forces won't do it. The scaled tariff can become the world's major instrument to achieve balanced trade. And as you know, the administration has been hostile to increasing production of fossil fuels which, the last time I looked, we were importing sixty percent of our needs. We have immense reserves in public lands (verboten!), offshore and in the arctic. Environmentalists who endorse the adminsitration's policy are trying to impede the production of natural gas extracted from shale. And the administration is doing its best to restrict the growth of private enterprise at home except for the inefficient, subsidized production of wind and solar energy. We need to change our policies to get real growth.
Response to this comment by Raymond Richman, 8/23/2011:
I reported the actual unemployment claims last week to correct the impression that all of the media, including CNBC, Bloomberg, WS, NYTimes etc., etc. gave that uinemployment claims rose by 9,000 last week. That is the number that the BLS calculated as the seasonally adusted number. In normal years, the auto industry have lay-offs in July and August while they prepare for new models. When was the last normal year that we had? I do not believe we have had one in years. The BLS also published the actual number of initial claims for unemployment insurance which showed a DECREASE of 11,000 in inital claims. Neither figure is good but the latter figure is positive. The anouncement that initial claims rose 9,000 contributed together with the bad news from Europe to a drop in the DOW of over 400 points.
I am in the midst of estimating what the most likely course will be for our economy and will put it on our blog when I finish. I have tentatively concluded that a sideways movement -- stagflation is more likely than a double dip. As my readers know, I believe we need to balalnce our trade, not only with China, but with Japan and Germany and oil producing states, utilizing our invention of the the single-country-scaled-tariff. Market forces won't do it. The scaled tariff can become the world's major instrument to achieve balanced trade. And as you know, the administration has been hostile to increasing production of fossil fuels which, the last time I looked, we were importing sixty percent of our needs. We have immense reserves in public lands (verboten!), offshore and in the arctic. Environmentalists who endorse the adminsitration's policy are trying to impede the production of natural gas extracted from shale. And the administration is doing its best to restrict the growth of private enterprise at home except for the inefficient, subsidized production of wind and solar energy. We need to change our policies to get real growth.
Buy Trading Away Our Future
Read Trading Away Our Future
ITA Working Papers
ITA on Facebook
Capital Gains Taxation
Corporate Income Tax
Economy - Long Term
Economy - Short Term
- World Economic Growth is Slowing -- we were published in today's American Thinker
- World Economic Growth is Slowing
- Obamacare is a Classic Case of Bad Economics From Conception to Implementation
- The US Did Not Create 205,000 New Jobs in October, 2013 -- Jobs Fell by 499,000
- Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Week Ending October 26
- How the Republicans Could Have "Won" the Partial Government Shutdown
- Is it 1929 again?
- US long term interest rate up due to sales of dollars by foreign investors
- Rise in Initial Unemployment Claims Shows Lack of Economic Recovery
- Rise in Initial Unemployment Claims Portends Another Recession
- Why U.S. long-term interest rates have been rising since May 1
- Manufacturing Employment Down for Third Month in a Row
- Household Consumption Falls and the Market Plunges
- Shale gas, not government, fueling our recovery - Ray was published in the Tribune Review on Friday
- Book Review of David A. Stockman, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America (Public Affairs, New York, 2013)
- Shale Natural Gas Stimulates Economy As Federal Government Weakens the Recovery
- Morici predicts manufacturing and house price slumps
- ALERT: Good or Bad Economic News, Report of Initial Unemployment Claims
- At Last, There Are Signs of a Beginning to Recovery From the Recession
- The Unemployment Rate Is Closer to 15% Than 7.7%
- Trade Deficits Increase U.S. Debt Vulnerability
- The economy is really growing at about a 1.5% rate
- Ray was right -- the Obama Recession Begins!
- New Unemployment Claims still far above 2007 levels
- Half way through - Obama's first 5-year plan is a failure
- Obama Recession Begins? Unemployment Claims Escalate
- It Is "Across-the-Board" and a Tax Increase; It Is NOT "Over-the-Cliff"
- Obama Wants to Continue the Discredited Keynesian Policies of the Past
- Profiles of Courage on the Fiscal Cliff
- Rise in Initial Unemployment Claims Shows Lack of Economic Recovery
- The Real Fiscal Cliff
- Approaching the Fiscal Cliff Intelligently
- Nonsense Proposals by Pres. Obama and the Republican Leaders Are Over-the-Cliff
- $260 billion in budget cuts is not enough
- The Going Over-the-Cliff nonsense. What we need to do.
- CBO is Wrong about the fiscal cliff. House Republicans should Stand Strong.
- Employment Data Show No Economic Growth
- Environmental Fanatics and Governments That Do Their Bidding Are Preventing Economic Recovery
- Ray was right! The latest jobless claims were phony. A Labor Department economist blows the whistle on the phony report.
- U.S. Department of Labor Reports Implausible Employment Data
- The Shrinking Labor Force – More Important Than 7.8% Unemployment
- Free Trade With China? No, Fair Trade. No Artificial Barriers to Trade
- Investors Should Keep an Eye on Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Data
- Getting the Fiscal Cliff Backwards
- Manufacturing Declines Continue
- The End of the Housing Bubble
- How the Federal Reserve Under Greenspan and Bernanke Caused the Housing Bubble and the Recession
- Again! Failure of the Media to Report Actual Claims for Unemployment Insurance
- Obama's Economic Stimulus Plans Are Actually Retarding Recovery
- Europe Is Committing Economic Suicide and So Is the United States
- Distinguished Economist Attacks Free Trade as Bankrupting the U.S.
- Eurozone experiment proves that imbalanced trade leads to disaster
- Wasting a Trillion Dollars to "Prevent" Global Warming Is Stifling Economic Recovery
- Pres. Obama Appoints Non-Economists to Key Economic Positions
- Bernanke needs to get with the program
- Rules vs. Authorities -- Listen to Ray's Feb. 18 radio interview
- David Stockman: The statistics coming out of the BLS and BEA are "The Economists' Truman Show"
- Jobs gain in January partly due to warm winter in U.S.
- Initial Unemployment Compensation Claims Exceeded 400,000 Week Ending January 28, 2012
- Morici: 8.5% unemployment may be as good as it gets
- CNBC TV, Bloomberg TV, Fox Business Channel, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times Mislead Investors on Initial Claims for Unemployment Compensation
- Investors Are Entitled to Better Reporting of Unemployment Insurance Claims
- Payroll tax cut -- a new entitlement?
- United Kingdom's Prince Phillip Calls Wind Farms "Useless and a Disgrace"
- Bad Reporting of Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Data Continues
- Economics of Greek, Italian, and U.S. Sovereign Debt Defaults
- Bernanke trying to hide the rise
- Bernanke: China's currency policy is causing the slow growth in the advanced industrial countries
- Pres. Obama's Job Act Ignores the Jobs Lost as a Result of the Trade Deficits, Environmental Foolishness, and His Opposition to Oil and Gas Drilling
- Lazy Analysts at CNBC, Bloomberg, and the Wall St. Journal
- The Jobs Act Is the Recovery ACT of 2009 Redux and If Possible Even Worse
- Mr. President, Here Are Some Ways to Create Millions of Jobs That Require No Increase in Government Expenditures
- Unemployment claims Have Fallen But the Economy is Stagnating. What we need to do.
- Unemployment Claims Fell and Did Not Rise As Reported. Did the Misinformation Help Cause the Fall in the Stock Markets?
- Prof. Feldstein Has No Recovery Policy
- Double the Dip?
- How Misleading Unemployment Claims Data Can Cause the Double Dip Recession
- The Depression Continues
- Can We Trust BEA's Quarterly Reports on the GDP?
- Prof. Boudreaux's Simplistic Ideology of Free Trade
- Make the Current Debt Limit Permanent
- Is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisics "Lying" About Unemployment Claims?
- Are the Media Massaging the Unemployment Data?
- Why President Obama's Economic Stimulus Plan Was a Failure
- Inflation climbs to 3.6% in May. Palin was Right -- We're published in today's American Thinker
- The Unanticipated Costs of the Wars In Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya
- Inflation climbs to 3.57% in May
- Where is Housing Going? That Depends on Where You are Looking
- In Praise of Inflation
- Inflation reaches 3.16% in April
- 9% Unemployment is Strike 3 for QE2
- Congress Fools Around and Does Nothing to Create Jobs. Here Is What It Should Do.
- GDP growth was just 1.8% in first quarter. New Depression not Over.
- Rand Paul: We need to cut spending. The American dream is at stake.
- Exports down. Imports down. Growth estimates down.
- Consumer confidence is tumbling - economic growth will likely slow during 2nd Quarter
- Why Obama's $8billion Recovery Act Did Not Stimulate the Economy
- German and Chinese Surpluses and Growth; PIIGS and the U.S. Deficits and No Growth
- Money Supply during the Great Depression
- Pat Buchanan Gets the Trade Deficits Right But the Solution Wrong
- Will 2011 be another 1938 or another 1941?
- How to Create Productive Jobs and Avoid Global Warming Bankruptcy
- A Quick Economic Recovery With Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
- American output increased at a 3.2% rate in the fourth quarter, but real American income only increased at a 1.3% rate!
- U.S. Manufacturing Employment Rose in January
- How is QE2 doing so far?
- Sperling, a Poor Choice for Director of National Economic Council
- Government Wimps Masquerading as Economists
- A Scaled Tariff would Help Balance the 2011 Budget - we're published in today's American Thinker
- With No Program for Economic Recovery, the Republlicans Will Lose in 2012
- Not "Free Trade". Let's Have Balanced Trade
- The Employment Report Portrays a Dismal Outlook For the Economy
- Growing Trade Deficit continues U.S. Depression
- Sound Monetary Policy Is Necessary But More Is Needed
- Achieving Reasonably Balanced Trade Is an Act of Self Preservation
- Why Pres. Obama's Economic Stimulus Has Failed
- Only the USA's Leaders Are Foolish Enough to Embrace Unilateral Free Trade
- Being Deaf, Dumb, and Blind on Our Huge Trade Deficits!
- We Are Out of the Recession But Mired In a Depression
- Prof. Gomory Urges a National Policy of Balanced Trade Not Free Trade
- A Conservative Proposal for Economic Recovery That Won't Work
- Boeckh Nails It, but Opposes the Solution
- Reducing the Trade Deficits Is Essential for Economic Recovery
- The Housing Bust Redux
- Economists Don't Know How to Recover From the Recession
- U.S. Growth Slows Due to Trade Deficit -- we were published in the American Thinker this morning
- Krugman: G-20 summit will continue the depression
- Bush and Obama's Economic Stimulus Attempts
- Geithner and Summers Make Their Economic Mistakes Transparent
- Congress Is Responsible for This Recession; Not the Banks, Not Wall Street
- How the False Doctrine of "Free Trade" is Crippling the U.S. Economy.
- After the Euro, Fluctuating Currencies
- Bernanke optimistic that stagnation will continue
- G-20 Foreign Ministers give up on stimulus spending
- Employment report shows that the recovery is losing its thrust
- Dramatic Changes Needed to Recover From This Depression, Not Earmarks
- Evans-Pritchard: Summers call for yet another stimulus package is a tacit admission that the economy is losing thrust
- Congress Is Responsible For This Recession; Not the Banks, Not Wall Street
- Michael Pettis predicts Europe will be moving toward a trade surplus
- Wishful Thinking on House Prices and the Economy
- "Le Tarpe" will not work any better than did TARP
- Construction Employment has first uptick since June 2007
- US Manufacturing Employment is Rising
- Obama administration is impoverishing the U.S. middle class
- The Greek and the American Financial Crisis -- Similarities and Differences.
- Rogoff predicts high interest rates will force budget balancing
- Morici expects good jobs report on Friday
- Prof. Ralph Gomory on Thomas Friedman's Innovation Delusion
- How not to export your way out of a recession
- The Costly Obama Stimulus Is Not Working
- Bernanke starting to raise interest rates
- Is the U.S. Economy Growing?
- 4th Quarter GDP Shows Economy Heading Upward
- Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - We were published in American Thinker this morning
- Ambrose Pritchard: America Slides Deeper into Depression
- Manufacturing employment continued to decline in December
Real Estate Taxation
American Economic Alert
American Jobs Alliance
Angry Bear Blog
Economy in Crisis
Emmanuel Goldstein's Blog
Levy Economics Institute
Michael Pettis Blog
Natural Born Conservative
Science & Public Policy Inst.
What's Up With That
[An] extensive argument for balanced trade, and a program to achieve balanced trade is presented in Trading Away Our Future, by Raymond Richman, Howard Richman and Jesse Richman. “A minimum standard for ensuring that trade does benefit all is that trade should be relatively in balance.” [Balanced Trade entry]
Journal of Economic Literature:
[Trading Away Our Future] Examines the costs and benefits of U.S. trade and tax policies. Discusses why trade deficits matter; root of the trade deficit; the “ostrich” and “eagles” attitudes; how to balance trade; taxation of capital gains; the real estate tax; the corporate income tax; solving the low savings problem; how to protect one’s assets; and a program for a strong America....
Atlantic Economic Journal:
In Trading Away Our Future Richman ... advocates the immediate adoption of a set of public policy proposal designed to reduce the trade deficit and increase domestic savings.... the set of public policy proposals is a wake-up call... [February 17, 2009 review by T.H. Cate]